GDG- If Stuart had been there...

[Tom Ryan]

<<Building on the recent discussion about Stuart, assume that Stuart was
with
Lee all the way, but the situation was otherwise the same as the historical
facts. Assume that Stuart is with Lee as the Confederates cross over the
mountains from Chambersburg. Do you think Lee would have chosen to fight at
Gettysburg? Or would he have gone deeper, into Maryland? Do you think Lee
would have been able to move into Maryland? Do you think he would have been
able to go through Gettysburg or deploy in that area before the Union army
got there?>>

Todd,

I think there is little doubt that the ANV would have reached Gettysburg
before the advance of the Union army if Stuart had stayed behind and not
attempted to pass through the Union army.  If Stuart had stayed in the
Loudoun Valley or at least left a detachment behind, Mosby would have
informed either one that the AoP had begun to cross the river on the morning
of June 25.  That means that Lee would have known as much as two to three
days earlier that this occurred (in reality he learned on the 28th), and he
would have been able to take action accordingly by recalling Ewell and
starting Hill and Longstreet toward Gettysburg.

Recall that Mosby was not in the Loudoun Valley when Hooker started the Army
northward, because he had accompanied Stuart on his expedition and was busy
scouting for an appropriate place for Stuart to cross the river.

Lee likely would have chosen Gettysburg to fight because he wanted to keep
the AoP east of the mountains and away from his lines of communications.  He
also wanted to stay relatively close to the mountain gaps to insure freedom
of movement if he needed to withdraw from the area.  In addition, Gettysburg
had accessible roads that permitted his army to approach it from several
directions.

If Lee had decided to move south into Maryland, he would have relinguished
advantages offered by the Gettysburg area -- particularly having sufficient
time to establish a defensive position with his entire army prior to the
Union army being on top of him.

However, if Lee reached Gettysburg first, Meade would likely have deployed
along the Pipe Creek Line in Maryland just below the Pennsylvania line.
Then it would have been a matter of waiting each other out to see who would
feel compelled to attack first.  Certainly Meade would be under pressure
from Washington to go after Lee, so the AoP may have had to march on
Gettysburg with the ANV likely sitting astride Cemetery Hill and Cemetery
Ridge.  There would be some urgency for Lee to act as well, once his
provisions became scarce by staying in one place too long.  It seems it
would be a matter of which army could hold out the longest before being
compelled to attack the other.  My guess would be that Meade would have to
go on the offensive, and that would not have been good news for the AoP.

Tom

Tom