GDG- Re: turning point?

[Biggsk at aol.com]

Todd writes:

>>>>I subscribe to the traditional idea that if the South  had won decisively 
at Gettysburg, then the war would have been over. I will  add that if Lee had 
accomplished such a victory, the Union triumph at  Vicksburg probably would 
have come to nothing.  >>>>



At the same time as Gettysburg and Vicksburg were the Union victories in  the 
Tullahoma Campaign in Tennessee and the defeat of the attacking Confederates  
at Helena, Arkansas.  With these, and many other wins in 1863 for the  Union, 
I do not see the Confederates winning the war even if they had won at  
Gettysburg.
 
Lincoln was not that type of man to have let that happen.  What would  have 
happened, most likely, is a scenario similar to that proposed in the  Gingrich 
novel - Grant and much of his army comes East, Sherman and the Navy  hold the 
far west while Rosecrans operates against Chattanooga and Atlanta  (probably 
with Sherman's support) and cutting the major railroads supplying Lee  from the 
Deep South.
 
You have completely underestimated the importance - to both sides - of the  
fall of Vicksburg.  Additionally, with Lee's supply situation being what it  
was, he would have had to fall back into Virginia even with a huge win in  
Pennsylvania.
 
What I see is a shifting of some priorities as well as troops and the war  
ending somewhat later than it did.
 
To have really had the chance to win in 1863, the Confederates would have  
had to smash both Meade and Grant.
 
Greg Biggs