GDG- Re: the politics of 1864

Sun Feb 4 20:11:07 CST 2007

Hi Greg - I take your point, but I still do not agree. I know that 
Americans didn't have quite the national loyalties we have today in 
1860/4, but I do not think Americans treated the south as a 'foreign 
country' that they could just leave if they became war weary. Your 
examples of N Vietnam, etc. do not equate with the feelings I have 
read in letters talking about the '*** rebels' breaking up the best 
country in the World. There is much more here and I'll restate that 
my readings of primary documents suggest a will to win in the north 
that was much stronger than you or Tom suggest. I also do not think 
you take into account the feelings of 100,000 Federal soldiers from 
the South, their families, etc. etc. Once again, I look at the map of 
the Confederacy in the summer of 1864 and I cannot imagine a peace 
treaty being signed or accepted by the Federal government.

best,

Laurie Schiller

>Esteemed GDG Member Contributes:
>
>
>Tom and Laurie,
>
>I agree that it does not matter if the war is domestic or overseas - the 
>main weakness of a republic at war is the support of its people no 
>matter where 
>that war is fought.  Northern cities were not being laid waste in the Civil 
>War - only those in that "foreign land."  So that was not a factor at all  for
>the Union public to worry about.  Thus, Vietnam, and even the  Napoleonic
>Wars, offer case examples worthy of comparison to the Union public of  1864.
>
>Lee stated clearly in 1864 that the South's best hope was to, "resist 
>manfully."  What he meant by this was to try and make it so bloody 
>for the  Union
>that there was a decent chance for them stopping the war.  One can  certainly
>make the case for this same strategy in 1863.  North Vietnamese  Gen. Giap,
>whose book I own and have read, also used the same strategy, and he 
>based it on
>that of George Washington in actuality.  Keep the army in the  field even if
>you get beat time and again.  Sooner or later, the public 
>supporting the other
>side will wear out.  It worked for Washington.
>
>I heard a report recently about the Paris peace talks after the Linebacker 
>II B-52 raids over North Vietnam, where the NVA's supply line got chopped to 
>bits thus forcing them back to the peace table.  It stated that the North 
>Vietnamese came in fully expecting the US envoys to demand their 
>surrender.  But
>what kept them going was two-fold:  first, the antiwar  faction in the USA was
>getting larger and more of the media was against  it.  Secondly, the envoys
>did not demand surrender; only a negotiated  end.
>
>That was when the North Vietnamese knew they could win the political  victory
>once and for all, despite the hammering of the bomber raids.  They  knew from
>the second course that our side had no intention of really  winning.
>
>In 1813, when Napoleon was fighting for his life after the disaster of 
>Russia the year before, he was able to, through super-human ability 
>seemingly, 
>raise a new army to fight.  He would win some battles and not be able to  make
>anything of them due to lack of cavalry (which he feared would be a huge 
>problem - and it was) to pursue the losers with.  But so long as he 
>won  battles,
>the war-weary French people would hang on even after fighting wars 
>for  20 years
>so far.  Thus, Napoleon knew that for him to remain where he was,  he had to
>win to keep his people's support.  He may have been emperor, but  there was a
>growing royalist and anti-Napoleon faction in France, and many were  just
>tired of war.
>
>Then came Leipzig, the largest battle of the 19th Century, and Napoleon 
>lost.  From there it was all downhill, with a few flourishes of hope, but  not
>nearly enough, so that in 1814, the Allies invaded France in great 
>strength  and
>he was forced to abdicate.  When he came back from Elba, the  French people,
>though mostly happy to have him back over the Bourbons, still  shackled him
>with some constraints, so that when he lost at Waterloo, the people  were just
>not willing to go through the 1814 fighting in France again.
>
>In both examples, one can find events of military history where the 
>political side was lost (or won) based almost entirely on the 
>support of folks  at
>home, and that this is indeed tied to military victories in some 
>cases to  keep
>that support.  The longer a war goes on, the less the support over 
>time.  Even
>the ancient Greeks knew this and their Peloponnesian War is  also worthy of
>study along these lines.
>
>Therefore, despite some evidence to the contrary, I still think that had 
>Atlanta held, Mobile been a CS victory and maybe even Early pulling it off in 
>the Valley, Lincoln was in deep trouble in November.  Add into this 
>the  growing
>casualties and the public complaining to Congress, and then Congress 
>complaining to Lincoln, and you have one bad scenario that could 
>well have  happened.
>
>But to me, the ultimate proof is that Lincoln, manic depressive or not (too 
>many Velvet Underground records perhaps?) , STILL, thought he was toast - and 
>that carries a lot of weight I think.  He was the one up for re-election;  no
>one else!
>
>As a related issue, where I used to live in Ohio, a small town, their 
>newspaper predates the Civil War and it is still owned by the same 
>family.   The
>paper was anti-Lincoln in 1860 and even more so in 1864 - and the 
>casualty  lists
>were one of their reasons.
>
>Greg Biggs
> 
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-- 
Dr. Laurence Dana Schiller
Maitre d'Armes
Head Fencing Coach
Department of History
Northwestern University
Commissioner, Midwest Fencing Conference
Midwest VP, US Fencing Coaches' Association
Vice-Chair USFA Illinois Division
Lds307 at northwestern.edu
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