GDG- BMI

[Tim Gennett]

Tom, thanks for the follow up.

However, I am slow to criticize Meade for not putting more value in the BMI 
data based on the info that I see.  The fact that Marsena Patrick believed 
in the numbers is not compelling.  It was his outfit, you would expect him 
to believe.  Were there other voices telling Meade the BMI data was good? 
Meade was the head of a large organization, and had many voices to listen 
to.  Patrick alone saying this was good data would not be very compelling.

I still don't have a sense of when it was generally accepted that the BMI 
data was sound.  Your reference to the data on Ewell's corps does not make 
this clear.  Sure, we know today that the numbers were accurate.  Is it 
possible to pinpoint a time when the reliability of their data was generally 
accepted?  I have the sense that if Meade had said to his corps commanders 
that he was going to do such and so based on the reliability of the BMI data 
that there would have been a lot of raised eyebrows in the group.

Regards, Tim

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Tom Ryan" <pennmardel at mchsi.com>
To: "GDG" <gettysburg at arthes.com>
Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 21:00
Subject: RE: GDG- BMI


> Esteemed GDG Member Contributes:
>
>
> <<Tom, 2 questions for you.
>
> First, when did it become "known" that the BMI data was accurate?  We know
> today that they had the numbers nailed pretty well.  Obviously, Meade 
> didn't
> know it.  At what point in history did it become generally understood that
> the BMI was providing accurate info?
>
> Second, was there other intelligence available to Meade?  In other words,
> instead of accepting the BMI numbers, was he in fact accepting as accurate
> other numbers that we know, today, were inaccurate?
>
> Regards, Tim>>
>
> Tim,
>
> The BMI earned a reputation for reliability soon after its establishment 
> in
> early 1863.  It cobbled together an accurate picture of Lee's army prior 
> to
> the Battle of Chancellorsville using information from a variety of 
> sources.
>
> When Meade took over as AoP commander from Hooker, he had available to him
> a high ranking officer who knew about the success of the BMI in the person
> of Provost Marshal General Marsena Patrick -- who was administratively
> responsible for the BMI.  Patrick had a high opinion of the BMI's 
> capability
> as seen from his comments in his diary.
>
> Meade also looked to the BMI at Gettysburg to provide information.  There
> are a number of reports in the BMI files that inform Meade about the enemy
> situation.  The BMI's report about the size of Ewell's corps is the best
> example of how accurate their information was.  This is not surprising
> considering the large number of prisoners they had available from which to
> gather this data.
>
> My sense is that Meade had enough information available for him to make a
> judgment as to the reliability of the BMI's reports.  It appears he chose
> not to place high value on them, however, for reasons that are not clear.
> There is also no evidence that he requested the BMI to provide him an 
> order
> of battle for Lee's entire army at Gettysburg.
>
> The only other intelligence available to Meade that is known was contained
> in reports from citizens coming through various sources that estimated the
> size of Lee's army anywhere from 80 to 100 thousand as it marched across
> Pennsylvania.  In my opinion, the most reliable of these reports had the
> number at 80K.  The figure came from a number of men who counted the 
> passing
> army independently, then compared their figures with each other prior to
> passing them on to the Union command.
>
> During the CW, it was generally accepted that citizen reports were
> unreliable, because they invariably inflated the numbers.  As a result,
> Meade should have been listening to his intelligence staff not people 
> along
> the road who had no expertise in these matters.  How he came to the
> conclusion that Lee had over 20,000 more troops at Gettysburg than he
> actually had is unclear.  It is known that Joe Hooker also inflated the 
> size
> of Lee's army despite the BMI informing him otherwise.  There is no 
> evidence
> that Hooker passed along his beliefs to Meade, however.  Inflating the 
> size
> of the enemy does appear to have been an AoP syndrome.
>
> After Gettysburg, Meade began to downgrade the BMI as an all source
> intelligence bureau, and paid the price when forthcoming information
> eventually became erratic.  This was not rectified until Grant arrived and
> assessed the situation as being unacceptable.  He gradually returned the 
> BMI
> to its original status, and the bureau played an important role toward the
> latter part of the war in the eventual collapse of the Confederacy.
>
> Hope this addresses your questions.
>
> Regards, Tom
>
>
>
>
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